Professor Bent Flyvbjerg

Publications

Books:

Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaprojects, forthcoming, Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings, vols 1-2, 2014, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar.

Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman, and Sanford Schram, eds., Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis, 2012, Cambridge University Press.

Hugo Priemus, Bent Flyvbjerg, and Bert van Wee, eds., Decision-Making on Mega-Projects: Cost–benefit Analysis, Planning, and Innovation, 2008, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar.

Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius, and Werner Rothengatter, Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition, 2003, Cambridge University Press.

Bent Flyvbjerg, Making Social Science Matter: Why Social Inquiry Fails and How It Can Succeed Again, 2001, Cambridge University Press.

Bent Flyvbjerg, Rationality and Power: Democracy in Practice, 1998, The University of Chicago Press.

Journal Articles:

Flyvbjerg, Bent, "The Fallacy of Beneficial Ignorance: A Test of Hirschman's Hiding Hand", World Development 2016, available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2767128. 

Flyvbjerg, Bent and Cass R. Sunstein, 2015, "The Principle of the Malevolent Hiding Hand; or, the Planning Fallacy Writ Large," forthcoming in Social Research, available at SSRN http://bit.ly/1hCsaOg.

Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier, 2015, "Why Do Projects Fail?", Project Magazine, Summer, p. 22.

Projects, Power, and Politics: A Conversation with Bent Flyvbjerg, interview conducted by Jesper Pagh and Malene Freudendal-Pedersen, In English and Danish, Twentyfirst, no. 3, May, 2014, pp. 62-75.

What You Should Know about Megaprojects and Why: An Overview, Project Management Journal, vol. 45, no. 2, April-May, 2014, pp. 6-19.

Should We Build More Large Dams? The Actual Costs of Hydropower Megaproject Development, 2014, Energy Policy, March 10, pp. 1-14.

Our Biggest Schemes Work Out so Badly. Can You Explain the Reason for this? Interview by Heide Wessely, 2013, Detail, No. 12, in English and German, December, pp. 1360-1366.

Tension Points in Real Social Science: A Response, 2013, British Journal of Sociology, vol. 64, No. 4, December, pp. 758–762.

Mega Delusional: The Curse of the Megaproject, 2013, New Scientist, December, pp. 28-29. Article listed on SSRN's Top Ten Download List for Infrastructure (No. 1), Top Ten for Urban Infrastructure (No. 1), Top Ten for Latin American Economics (No. 1), Top Ten for Political Economy/Development (No. 1), and Top Ten for Urban Economics & Regional Studies (No. 3).

Political Political Science: A Phronetic Approach, 2013, co-authors: Sanford F. Schram and Todd Landman, New Political Science, vol. 35, no. 3, August, pp. 359-372.

How Planners Deal with Uncomfortable Knowledge: The Dubious Ethics of the American Planning Association, 2013, Cities, vol. 32, June, pp. 157-163.

Quality Control and Due Diligence in Project Management: Getting Decisions Right by Taking the Outside View, 2013, International Journal of Project Management, vol. 31, no. 5, May, pp. 760-774.

Geographical Variation in Project Cost Performance: The Netherlands Versus Worldwide, 2012, co-authors: Chantal C. Cantarelli and Søren L. Buhl, Journal of Transport Geography, vol. 24, September, pp. 324-331.

Different Cost Performance: Different Determinants? The Case of Cost Overruns in Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects, 2012, co-authors: Chantal C. Cantarelli, Eric J. E. Molin, and Bert van Wee, Transport Policy, vol. 22, July, pp. 88-95.

Characteristics of Cost Overruns for Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects and the Importance of the Decision to Build and Project Phases, 2012, co-authors: Chantal C. Cantarelli, Eric J. E. Molin, and Bert van Wee, Transport Policy, vol. 22, July, pp. 49-56.

Why Mass Media Matter to Planning Research: The Case of Megaprojects, 2012, Journal of Planning Education and Research, vol. 32, no. 2, June, pp. 169-181.

Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier than You Think, 2011, co-author: Alexander Budzier, Harvard Business Review, September, pp. 601-603.

Transferable Knowledge: An Interview with Bent Flyvbjerg, 2011, interview by Inge Mette Kirkeby, Architectural Research Quarterly, vol. 15, no. 1, March, pp. 9-14.

Lock-in and Its Influence on the Project Performance of Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Investigating the Way in Which Lock-In Can Emerge and Affect Cost Overruns, 2010, co-authors: Chantal C. Cantarelli, Bert van Wee, and Eric J. E. Molin, Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, vol. 37, May, pp. 792-807.

Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: Improving Institutions and Decision Making, 2010, co-author Bert van Wee, Editorial, European Journal of Transport Infrastructure Research, vol. 10, no. 1, March, pp. 1-4.

Cost Overruns in Large-scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness, 2010, co-authors: Chantal C. Cantarelli, Eric J. E. Molin, and Bert van Wee, European Journal of Transport Infrastructure Research, vol. 10, no. 1, March, pp. 5-18.

Survival of the Unfittest: Why the Worst Infrastructure Gets Built—And What We Can Do About It, 2009, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 25, no. 3, December, pp. 344-367.

Delusion and Deception in Large Infrastructure Projects: Two Models for Explaining and Preventing Executive Disaster, 2009, co-authors: Massimo Garbuio and Dan Lovallo, California Management Review, vol. 51, no. 2, February, pp. 170-193.

Comparison of Capital Costs per Route-Kilometre in Urban Rail, 2008, co-authors: Nils Bruzelius and Bert Van Wee, European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, vol. 8, no. 1, March, pp. 17-30.

Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice, 2008, European Planning Studies, vol. 16, no. 1, January, pp. 3-21.

Truth and Lies about Megaprojects, 2007, Inaugural Speech for Professorship and Chair at Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management: Delft University of Technology, 27 pp.

Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures, 2007, Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, vol. 34, no. 4, March, pp. 578-597. This article was awarded the Association of European Schools of Planning (AESOP) Prize for Best Published Paper, July 2008.

Planning and Design of Large Infrastructure Projects, 2007, guest editorial, co-author: Hugo Priemus, Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, vol. 34, March, pp. 576-577.

Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure, 2007, Transportation Planning and Technology, vol. 30, no. 1, February, pp. 9-30.

From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right, 2006, Project Management Journal, vol. 37, no. 3, August, pp. 5-15.

Five Misunderstandings About Case-Study Research, 2006, Qualitative Inquiry, vol. 12, no. 2, April, pp. 219-245.

Measuring Inaccuracy in Travel Demand Forecasting: Methodological Considerations Regarding Ramp Up and Sampling, 2005, Transportation Research A, vol. 39, no. 6, July, pp. 522-530.

Design by Deception: The Politics of Megaproject Approval, 2005, Harvard Design Magazine, no. 22, June, pp. 50-59.

How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation, 2005, co-authors: Mette Skamris Holm and Søren L. Buhl, Journal of the American Planning Association, vol. 71, no. 2, April, pp. 131-146.

Phronetic Planning Research: Theoretical and Methodological Reflections, 2004, Planning Theory and Practice, vol. 5, no. 3, September, pp. 283–306.

Bringing Power to Planning Research: One Researcher's Praxis Story, 2002, Journal of Planning Education and Research, vol. 21, no. 4, June, pp. 353-366.

Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie? 2002, Journal of the American Planning Association, vol. 68, no. 3, June, pp. 279-295.

Habermas and Foucault: Thinkers for Civil Society? 1998, The British Journal of Sociology, vol. 49, no. 2, June, pp. 210-233.

Book Chapters:

Flyvbjerg, Bent, forthcoming, "Introduction: The Iron Law of Megaproject Management," in Flyvbjerg, Bent, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaprojects (Oxford: Oxford University Press).

Ansar, Atif, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, forthcoming, "Big Is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale," in Flyvbjerg, Bent, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaprojects (Oxford: Oxford University Press).

Cantarelli, Chantal C. and Bent Flyvbjerg, 2015, "Decision Making and Major Transport Infrastructure Projects: the Role of Project Ownership," in Robin Hickman, David Bonilla, Moshe Givoni, and David Banister, eds., Handbook on Transport and Development (Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar), August, pp. 380-393.

Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2015, "Aristotle, Foucault, and Progressive Phronesis: Outline of an Applied Ethics for Sustainable Development," in Ali Madanipour, ed., Planning Theory (London and New York: Routledge), vol. 3, chapter 70, June, pp. 340-354.

Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2015, "Habermas and Foucault: Thinkers for Civil Society?," in Ali Madanipour, ed., Planning Theory (London and New York: Routledge), vol. 4, chapter 74, June, pp. 3-27.

Five Misunderstandings about Case Study Research, Corrected, 2013, in Maggi Savin-Baden and Claire Howell Major, eds., Qualitative Research: The Essential Guide to Theory and Practice, pp. 165-166, London and New York: Routledge.

Overspend? Late? Failure? What the Data Says about IT Project Risk in the Public Sector, 2012, co-author: Alexander Budzier, in Commonwealth Secretariat, ed., Commonwealth Governance Handbook: Democracy, Development, and Public Administration, pp. 145-147, Cambridge: Nexus.

Habermas and Foucault: Thinkers for Civil Society? 2012, in Stewart R. Clegg and Mark Haugaard, eds., Power, vol. 1: Power and Politics, pp. 117-140, London: Sage.

Why Mass Media Matter and How to Work with Them: Phronesis and Megaprojects, 2012, in Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman, and Sanford Schram eds., Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis, pp. 95-121, Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press.

Introduction: New Directions in Social Science, 2012, co-authors: Todd Landman and Sanford Schram, in Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman and Sanford Schram, eds., Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis, pp. 1-14, Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press.

Important Next Steps in Phronetic Social Science, 2012, co-authors: Todd Landman,and Sanford Schram, in Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman and Sanford Schram, eds, Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis, pp. 285-297, Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press.

Making Social Science Matter, 2012, in G. Papanagnou, ed., Social Science and Policy Challenges: Democracy, Values and Capacities, pp. 25–56. Paris: UNESCO Publishing.

Delusion, Deception and Corruption in Major Infrastructure Projects: Causes, Consequences, Cures, 2011, co-author Eamonn Molloy, in Susan Rose-Ackerman and Tina Soreide, eds., International Handbook on the Economics of Corruption, pp. 81-107, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.

Policy and Planning for Large Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, and Curses, 2011, in Thomas L. Harper, Michael Hibbard, Heloisa Costa, Anthony Gar-On Yeh, eds., Dialogues in Urban Regional Planning, vol 4, pp. 223-248, New York: Routledge.

Case Study, 2011, in Norman K. Denzin and Yvonna S. Lincoln, eds., The Sage Handbook of Qualitative Research, 4th Edition, pp. 301-316, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Over Budget, Over Time, Over and Over Again: Managing Major Projects, 2011, in Peter W. G. Morris, Jeffrey K. Pinto, and Jonas Söderlund, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Project Management., pp. 321-344, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Optimism and Misrepresentation in Early Project Development, 2009, in Terry Williams, Knut Samset and Kjell Sunnevag, eds., Making Essential Choices with Scant Information: Front-end Decision Making in Major Projects, pp. 147-168, New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

Phronetic Organizational Research, 2008, in Richard Thorpe and Robin Holt, eds., The Sage Dictionary of Qualitative Management Research, pp. 153-155, Los Angeles: Sage Publications.

Making Sociology Matter: Phronetic Sociology as Public Sociology, 2008, in Michael Hviid Jacobsen, ed., Public Sociology, pp. 77-117, Aalborg University Press.

Introduction: Scope of the Book, 2008, co-authors Hugo Priemus and Bert van Wee, in Hugo Priemus, Bent Flyvbjerg, and Bert van Wee, eds., Decision-Making on Mega-Projects: Cost-benefit Analysis, Planning, and Innovation, pp. 1-20, Cheltenham, UK and Northamton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar.

Public Planning of Mega-projects: Overestimation of Demand and Underestimation of Costs, 2008, in Hugo Priemus, Bent Flyvbjerg, and Bert van Wee, eds., Decision-Making On Mega-Projects: Cost-benefit Analysis, Planning, and Innovation, pp. 120-144, Cheltenham, UK and Northamton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar.

How Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Early Project Development Undermine Implementation, 2007, in Kjell J. Sunnevåg, ed., Beslutninger på svakt informasjonsgrunnlag: Tilnærminger og utfordringer i projekters tidlige fase (Decisions based on weak information: Approaches and challenges in the early phase of projects), pp. 41-55, Trondheim, Norway: Concept Program, The Norwegian University of Science and Technology.

Eliminating Bias in Early Project Development through Reference Class Forecasting and Good Governance, 2007, in Kjell J. Sunnevåg, ed., Beslutninger på svakt informasjonsgrunnlag: Tilnærminger og utfordringer i projekters tidlige fase (Decisions based on weak information: Approaches and challenges in the early phase of projects), pp. 90-110, Trondheim, Norway: Concept Program, The Norwegian University of Science and Technology.

Megaprojects and Risk, 2007, in William L. Richter and Frances Burke, eds., Combating Corruption, Encouraging Ethics: A Practical Guide to Management Ethics, second edition, principal author: Bent Flyvbjerg; co-authors: Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, pp. 52-58, published in cooperation with The American Society for Public Administration. Lanham, MA and Plymouth, UK: Rowman and Littlefield.

Five Misunderstandings about Case-Study Research, 2007, in Clive Seale, Giampietro Gobo, Jaber F. Gubrium, and David Silverman, eds., Qualitative Research Practice: Concise Paperback Edition, pp. 390-404, London and Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

A Perestroikan Straw Man Answers Back: David Laitin and Phronetic Political Science, 2006, in Sanford F. Schram and Brian Caterino, eds., Making Political Science Matter: Debating Knowledge, Research, and Method, pp. 56-85, New York and London: New York University Press.

Making Organization Research Matter: Power, Values, and Phronesis,  2006, in Stewart R. Clegg, Cynthia Hardy, Thomas B. Lawrence, and Walter R. Nord, eds., The Sage Handbook of Organization Studies, second edition, July, pp. 370-387, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Working Papers:

Olympic Proportions: Cost and Cost Overrun at the Olympics 1960-2012, 2012, co-author: Allison Stewart, Working Paper, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, June, 23 pp.

Double Whammy: How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent, 2011, co-author: Alexander Budzier, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, August, 33 pp.

Policy and Planning for Large Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures, 2005, Policy Research Working Paper, WPS 3781, World Bank, Washington, DC, 32 pp.

Procedures for Dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning: Guidance Document, 2004, co-authors: Carsten Glenting, and Arne Kvist Rønnest, London: UK Department for Transport, 61 pp.

 

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Bent Flyvbjerg

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